Propagation of Uncertainties Using Improved Surrogate Models

Automatic Propagation of Uncertainties

Motivated by problems in metrology, we consider a numerical evaluation program y = f(x) as a model for a measurement process. We use a probability density function to represent the uncertainties in the inputs x and examine some of the consequences of using Automatic Differentiation to propagate these uncertainties to the outputs y. We show how to use a combination of Taylor series propagation a...

Propagation of Coulomb stress uncertainties in physics-based aftershock models

Stress transfer between earthquakes is recognized as a fundamental mechanism governing aftershock sequences. A common approach to relate stress changes to seismicity rate changes is the rate-and-state constitutive law developed by Dieterich: these elements are the foundation of Coulomb-rate-and-state (CRS) models. Despite the successes of Coulomb hypothesis and of the rate-and-state formulation...

Simulation of Radiowave Propagation Using Propagation Models

In this article we review the fundamental issues involving the simulation of the radio channel and discuss some of the more challenging simulation topics that are pertinent to the radio channel. Radio and propagation channels The propagation channel, together with the transmit and receive antennas, constitute the radio channel. Figure 1 depicts the propagation and radio channel's place in a rad...

Using Metamodels for Modelling the Propagation of Design Uncertainties

In the early stages of the design process, the designer has only a rough knowledge of the form of the design. Many design parameters may only be known within a certain range. As a consequence, product functionality is uncertain, the degree to which specific product functionality contributes to meeting overall customer and other stakeholder needs is known only imprecisely, as are the needs thems...

Surrogate Model Based Control Considering Uncertainties for Composite Fuselage Assembly